Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group(XAC) (000768 .SZ) — Based on CHINA MERCHANTS SECURITIES Deep Dive (Sep 24, 2026):Aerospace & Defense — Military Transport/Bomber & Civil Airframe
XAC (000768.SZ): Strategic airlift replenishment, military export upside & C919/C929 content drive multi-year earnings escalation. Constructive view hinges on 2027-28 delivery. P/E normalizes from ~52x to ~30x as earnings compound.
Disclaimer:This report is part of the “Notes” series by Gawin Research. It provides general information and an analytical framework only, and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Gawin Research is not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, nor a registered commodity trading adviser. This communication is directed solely at sophisticated institutional investors and high‑net‑worth individuals who can independently evaluate risks. As of the publication date, the author(s) and/or Gawin Research [hold / do not hold] positions in Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group (XAC, 000768.SZ), including [common shares / options / derivatives / none]. No compensation has been received from the issuer, underwriter, or any third party for preparing or distributing this report. All financial data are based on public filings (e.g., 1H26 interim report, exchange announcements, China Merchants Securities initiation/update dated 2026/09/24) and third‑party vendors [Wind / company IR / defense‑aerospace data providers]. Figures are in RMB unless stated; PRC GAAP, IFRS and US GAAP differences may cause restatements. This note contains scenario/valuation discussion solely as an illustrative framework—not a guarantee of returns and not a trading trigger. Forward‑looking statements are subject to risks; see footer disclaimers.
Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group (XAC) ｜ 000768.SZ ｜ Aerospace & Defense — Military Transport/Bomber & Civil Airframe
Investment Thesis
XAC is the principal A‑share integrator for large/medium military transport and bomber platforms, with an expanding civil role across C919/C929, regional aircraft and advanced composites. Near‑term financials are pressured by product‑mix transition at Shaanxi Aircraft and delayed new‑model recognition; however, strategic‑airlift replenishment, potential military‑export pricing uplift versus legacy Western/Russian peers, and rising C919/widebody work‑package content support a multi‑year earnings escalation. Under the referenced China Merchants base case, attributable net profit is revised to RMB 12.19bn / 15.80bn / 20.88bn for 2026E/27E/28E; implied P/E on the 2026/09/24 reference price of RMB 22.71 is approximately 52x / 40x / 30x. Rating framework is constructive (domestic equivalent: Strong Recommend), with no fixed price target assigned.
Source: 招商证券报告《中航西飞(000768.SZ)：运输机、轰炸机龙头，列装、军贸及民用具备广阔市场》2026/09/24 / China Merchants Securities report “Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group: Transport & Bomber Leader; Replenishment, Military Export and Civil Upside” dated 24 Sep 2026.
Key Data & Operating Drivers
- Margin repair from a transitional trough: 1H26 revenue RMB 14.186bn (−26.94% y/y); full‑year 2026 operating plan ~RMB 40.2bn (−1.98% y/y). Gross margin rebounded from a 2024 low of 5.85% to 8.13% in 1H26; net margin ~3.47%; total expense ratio fell from 3.93% in 2021 to 2.47% in 2025; 2023–25 attributable‑net‑profit CAGR ~15.6%. Revenue softness is attributed mainly to Shaanxi Aircraft product‑structure transition and new‑model qualification timing rather than order cancellation.
- Military demand and export pricing optionality: China 2026 defense budget RMB 1,909.56bn (+7% y/y) with equipment mix trending higher. Y‑20BE displayed at Dubai Airshow; referenced international peer resale premiums vs domestic procurement are framed at 30–50% on selected platforms. Supply‑side comparables: C‑17 effectively out of production, IL‑76MD‑90A estimated at 6–7 units/year—supporting XAC’s relative capacity position. Referenced fleet gap: China vs US transport totals 288 vs 962; large strategic transports only 58 in the cited dataset, implying a multi‑year replenishment runway.
- Civil work packages: XAC undertakes C919 outer wing box, flaps, ailerons, slats and center fuselage/center wing packages; public filings/IR cite stable 2025–26 component delivery as COMAC raises narrowbody output. C929 involvement includes rear‑fuselage front section, slats, ailerons and winglets per interim operating disclosures. Additional exposure runs through C909, MA700, AG600, Airbus A320/A321 and Boeing 737 tenders, plus Boeing/SAFRAN/Airbus‑qualified composite structures.
- Balance sheet and new options: Shaanxi‑based “Huanying‑60” large unmanned cargo system in validation (prototype start referenced 9/2026, serial production targeted 2029); 24 Aug 2026 private placement proposed to fund military/civil aircraft R&D, capacity, after‑sales, international subcontracting, space composites and metal structures.
Independent Assessment & Risks
The constructive view is essentially a 2027–28 delivery call: 2026E net profit growth is modest (~6% on RMB 12.19bn base), while 2027E/28E imply 30%/32% growth and the P/E bridge compresses from ~52x to ~30x only if new‑model military deliveries, export contracts and C919/C929 work‑package pricing all track plan. Contract liabilities should be the lead indicator—persistently low readings would signal order‑recognition slippage before P&L impact; a sustained rebound would corroborate the replenishment cycle. Export “pricing premium” is treated as indicative, not contracted: geopolitical approvals, buyer financing and delivery tenure create low‑frequency, high‑variance revenue. Unmanned cargo and composites are optionality rather than 2026–27 consensus carry. Downside scenarios include new‑equipment certification delays, COMAC/Airbus/Boeing rate cuts, raw‑material or FX pressure on subcontracting, and placement dilution if priced below internal return thresholds.
B2a Sources
本分析基于中航西飞公开文件（2026年中报、深交所公告）及招商证券2026年9月24日报告《中航西飞(000768.SZ)：运输机、轰炸机龙头，列装、军贸及民用具备广阔市场》，并辅以[Wind / 公司投资者关系部门 / 防务航空数据提供商]的数据。所有数字已在可能的情况下与原文件交叉核对；作者对第三方数据的准确性不承担责任。
This analysis is based on Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group’s public filings (1H26 interim report, Shenzhen Stock Exchange announcements) and China Merchants Securities report “Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group: Transport & Bomber Leader; Replenishment, Military Export and Civil Upside” dated 24 Sep 2026, supplemented by [Wind / company IR / defense‑aerospace data providers]. All figures have been cross‑checked against original filings where possible; the author assumes no responsibility for the accuracy of third‑party data.
B2b Conflicts of Interest & Holdings
截至发布前最后一个交易日，作者及Gawin Research [持有/不持有] 000768.SZ的多头或空头头寸，包括期权、衍生品或[无]。作者及Gawin Research均未从中航西飞、其关联公司或任何承销商处收取撰写本报告的直接或间接报酬。Gawin Research不接受付费换取报道或有利分析。若未来出现任何重大利益冲突，将在本文更新版本中显著披露。
As of the last trading day prior to publication, the author(s) and Gawin Research [do / do not] hold a long or short position in 000768.SZ, including options, derivatives, or [none]. Neither the author nor Gawin Research has received any direct or indirect compensation from XAC, its affiliates, or any underwriter for this report. Gawin Research does not accept payment for coverage or favorable analysis. Any future material conflict will be prominently disclosed in an updated version.
B2c Forward‑Looking Statements
本报告中的某些陈述构成美国1995年《私人证券诉讼改革法案》意义上的前瞻性陈述，包括但不限于产能爬坡、Y‑20BE出口订单、C919/C929工作包份额、“鹮影60”无人货运系统时间表、先进制造认证、利润率轨迹及拟议的定向增发。此类陈述受到业务、经济、监管及竞争不确定性的影响；实际结果可能重大差异。Gawin Research不承担更新任何前瞻性陈述的义务，除非适用法律另有要求。
Certain statements constitute forward‑looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including but not limited to capacity ramp, Y‑20BE/export awards, C919/C929 work‑package content, Huanying‑60 unmanned cargo timelines, advanced manufacturing qualification, margin trajectories and the proposed private placement. Such statements are subject to business, economic, regulatory and competitive uncertainties; actual results may differ materially. Gawin Research undertakes no obligation to update any forward‑looking statement except as required by applicable law.
B2d Scenario Valuation Boundaries
本文所呈现的任何基准/乐观/悲观情景或多重分析（包括基于参考价格的2026E/27E/28E市盈率~52x/40x/30x）仅为理解价值驱动因素的说明性框架。它不代表目标价、公允价值估计或买入/卖出/持有的建议。输入假设——包括收入增长、利润率轨迹、贴现率、终值及外汇汇率——本质上具有不确定性；输入的微小变化可能导致输出的巨大差异。投资者应进行独立分析。
Any base/bull/bear or multiple analysis herein (including 2026E/27E/28E P/E of ~52x/40x/30x on the reference price) is an illustrative framework for value drivers only. It does not represent a price target, fair‑value estimate, or recommendation to buy, sell or hold. Inputs—revenue growth, margin trajectory, discount rate, terminal value and FX—are inherently uncertain; small input changes can materially alter outputs. Conduct independent analysis.
B2e Cross‑Market & Jurisdictional Notes
XAC在深圳证券交易所上市（000768.SZ，人民币，中国会计准则）。本报告未涉及H股或ADR；若日后添加任何跨境上市或存托凭证，交易时间、结算周期、币种（人民币/港币/美元）、股息税、卖空规则及互联互通机制需重新评估。中国会计准则、IFRS与美国GAAP的处理可能导致重述。对于EEA/英国读者：此内容为非独立研究，仅面向专业客户/合格对手方，不符合MiFID II独立性要求。对于美国读者：根据出版商投资顾问注册豁免作为一般出版物分发，不针对任何个人财务状况。请咨询合格顾问。访问此内容即表示您同意Gawin Research的服务条款和完整免责声明；邮件分发须包含退订链接和实体地址[插入Gawin实体、街道、城市、国家]。
XAC trades on Shenzhen Stock Exchange (000768.SZ, RMB, PRC GAAP). No H‑share or ADR is referenced in this note; if any cross‑listing or depositary receipt is added later, trading hours, settlement, currency (CNY/HKD/USD), dividend taxation, short‑selling and Stock Connect rules must be reassessed. PRC GAAP, IFRS and US GAAP treatments may produce restatements. For EEA/UK readers: this is non‑independent research for professional clients/eligible counterparties only, not MiFID II independent research. For US readers: distributed as a general publication under the publisher’s investment‑adviser exemption; not tailored to any individual. Consult a qualified adviser. By accessing this content you agree to Gawin Research Terms of Service and full Disclaimer; for email distribution include unsubscribe link and physical address [insert Gawin entity, street, city, country].
