Three-Circle Group(300408.SH) — Based on Northeast Securities Deep Dive (Sep 17, 2026) — AI-Driven MLCC High-Cap Price Uptick + SOFC Separator Plate Ramp — Dual Growth Curves Unlock New Cycle
At 49.3x 2026E P/E, Three-Circle prices in both MLCC upturn and SOFC ramp. But near-term MLCC upside relies on consumer displacement, not AI premium; SOFC volumes hinge on Bloom delivery cadence. Track spot prices, capacity, and Bloom quarterly shipments.
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Northeast Securities | Three-Circle Group (300408)
AI-Driven MLCC High-Cap Price Uptick + SOFC Separator Plate Ramp — Dual Growth Curves Unlock New Cycle
One-Liner
We see Three-Circle's core upside from two structural drivers: (1) ordinary high-cap MLCC capacity expansion capturing spillover demand as Japanese/Korean suppliers shift production to AI-grade parts, and (2) SOFC separator plates tied to Bloom Energy for AIDC on-site power. We forecast 2026E net profit of RMB5.19bn, implying 49.3x P/E. Maintain Buy.
Key Data & Logic (≈400 words; sourced from Northeast Securities report dated September 17, 2026, "AI Wave Reshapes Supply-Demand, MLCC & SOFC Co-Open a New Growth Cycle")
MLCC supply-demand dynamics. AI server MLCC shipments are projected at 47.1bn/72.7bn units for 2026/2027E, up 71%/54% YoY, representing a market opportunity of US$560mn/US$1.28bn. Japanese and Korean manufacturers are reallocating high-capacitance SKUs (0201/0402/0603/0805) to meet AI demand, creating capacity shortages across consumer and industrial segments. The report draws parallels to the 2017–18 super-cycle, but notes this cycle features more persistent AI demand and slower high-end capacity additions. Spot prices for Three-Circle's 0603 104K model have risen from ~RMB6/thousand to RMB14–15/thousand on Huaqiangbei. Factory high-cap utilization exceeds 90%, with lead times extending from 8–10 weeks to 14–16 weeks. Three-Circle began 2026 with monthly capacity of ~50bn units, targeting 65bn by year-end, with all new capacity dedicated to high-cap products.
SOFC growth catalyst. AIDC-driven power bottlenecks in North America are expanding the SOFC separator plate addressable market from RMB3.33bn in 2026E to RMB18.89bn by 2030E, a CAGR of 54.3%. Three-Circle supplies >50% of Bloom Energy's separator plate needs via its tape casting and high-temperature sintering capabilities, establishing a clear second growth curve.
Financials. 2026–2028E revenue of RMB15.21bn/21.21bn/24.70bn, net profit of RMB5.19bn/8.45bn/10.28bn, implying P/E of 49.3x/30.2x/24.9x. Electronic components revenue grew from RMB1.57bn in 2023 to RMB3.31bn in 2025, now accounting for 36.7% of total sales.
Independent Take
The report simultaneously prices in both MLCC price increases and SOFC volume ramp-up, but their realization timelines differ materially.
On MLCC, Three-Circle's primary exposure is to ordinary high-cap, industrial, and domestic server large-size high-cap products — it has already entered Inspur and Kunpeng supply chains. However, core AI motherboard small-size ultra-high-cap SKUs (01005/0402), the North American GPU supply chain, and automotive-grade power/ADAS high-voltage high-temp parts remain dominated by Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, and Taiyo Yuden. Near-term substitution is limited. Upside therefore hinges more on "consumer electronics crowding out → ordinary high-cap price hikes → utilization rate and yield improvements" rather than commanding top-tier AI pricing.
On SOFC, >50% share of Bloom's separator plates provides a strong anchor. But separator plates represent only 25–30% of stack cost, while balance-of-plant accounts for 50–60%. Moreover, AIDC on-site power must compete with gas turbines and reciprocating engines on time-to-power and LCOE. If Bloom deliveries or Oracle/Brookfield projects fall short, separator plate volumes will lag.
At 49.3x 2026E P/E, the stock already reflects optimistic dual-cycle expectations. We recommend tracking three high-frequency indicators — spot high-cap prices, month-end capacity updates, and Bloom quarterly shipments — rather than extrapolating linearly from super-cycle analogies.
B2a · Sources
This analysis is based on publicly available information from Three-Circle Group's company filings, stock exchange announcements, supplemented by data from Northeast Securities 2026/09/17 deep-dive report, Wind. All figures have been cross-checked against original filings where possible. The author assumes no responsibility for the accuracy of third-party data.
B2b · Conflicts of Interest
As of the last trading day prior to publication, the author(s) and Gawin Research do not hold a long or short position in the securities discussed. Neither the author nor Gawin Research has received any direct or indirect compensation from the issuer, its affiliates, or any underwriter for the production of this report. Gawin Research does not accept payment for coverage or favorable analysis. If any material conflict arises in the future, it will be prominently disclosed in an updated version of this article.
B2c · Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including but not limited to management guidance, capacity expansion plans, technology adoption timelines, market share projections, and financial targets. Such statements are subject to significant business, economic, regulatory, and competitive uncertainties. Actual outcomes may differ materially. Gawin Research undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement except as required by applicable law.
B2d · Scenario Valuation Boundaries
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Source Report
本篇分析基于东北证券股份有限公司于2026年9月17日发布的深度研究报告：
《AI浪潮重塑供需，MLCC与SOFC共启成长新周期》
分析师：李恒光、张宇洋
报告类型：公司深度研究报告
评级：买入（维持）
